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Base trap
According to a statement by the Ministry of National Defence, "A ballistic missile launched from Iran and heading towards Turkish airspace was neutralised by NATO air and missile defence assets stationed in the Eastern Mediterranean." The statement added that part of the missile fell in the Dörtyol district of Hatay.
Following this news, NATO issued a statement and reacted to Iran for "targeting Turkey."
However, there is no concrete evidence that Iran targeted Turkey. It is clear that the missile was fired from Iran and travelled through Iraq to Syria. Claiming that the missile targeted Incirlik is, at least based on the available data, unfounded. It is much more likely that it was intended for a US presence in Syria, a US ship in the Eastern Mediterranean, or even bases in Southern Cyprus. It is also possible that such missiles can go out of control and change direction. In short, to assert with this data that the missile was directly targeting Turkey is a provocation by the US/NATO.
No attack on Iran from bases in Turkey
Turkey's stance so far has not pleased the US. The US wants its "ally" Turkey to take a stance against Iran.
Therefore, any development that could force a change in position must be analysed with great care by Ankara. Moreover, Turkey has recently experienced the negative consequences of rapid responses to partial border violations in Syria!
Even the so-called analyses in the Western press are instructive...
One of them gave three answers to the question, "Why is Iran targeting US bases in the Gulf but not US bases in Turkey?": Because the Gulf countries are weak, because the Turkish Armed Forces are strong, because Turkey is a NATO country.
However, none of these three answers are relevant to the issue, and the answers serve to obscure the truth.
The truth is: Iran does not target US bases in Turkey because there has been no attack on Iran from bases in Turkey!
The attack is not from Texas, but from bases in the Gulf
The base issue is of critical importance. However, Ankara needs to take this issue even more seriously. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan's statement on this matter seems problematic: "It is a wrong strategy for Iran to bomb Gulf countries indiscriminately."
Is this statement a diplomatic message to Iran saying, "Don't hit my ally Qatar"?
But the fallacy of this view lies in the following: Iran is not striking Qatar and other Gulf countries. It is striking US bases in these countries, centres that transmit data to the US and Israel, locations where US military personnel are stationed, and US embassies. It is striking US energy-political interests. Attacks on Iran are launched from those bases in the Gulf, not from the US state of Texas, after all!
This dialogue explains it well enough:
- NBC News: "How can attacking US military bases abroad be justified?"
- Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Arakchi: "Because they are attacking us."
That is the issue...
What should be done?
The bases in Turkey, regardless of their status, pose a significant risk as long as US activities are not suspended and harbour the potential for the US to set a trap.
If the US launches an attack on Iran from these bases, the consequences will be severe. Ankara must take away the US's opportunity to set such a trap.
Ankara must declare, in accordance with the law of neighbourliness, that it is suspending US activities at these bases until the war ends, and it must act accordingly.
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