At an informational meeting with representatives of media organisations, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan was asked whether Turkey would establish a security alliance with Saudi Arabia or Egypt. 

Fidan replied, "As of now, there are discussions and talks. But we have not yet signed any agreement" (AA, 15 January 2026).

I don't know because I am not invited to such meetings of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, but either the question is wrong or the Anadolu Agency's text is. Because it should be Pakistan instead of Egypt. I looked at the articles of people I thought might have attended the meeting. For example, Nedret Ersanel's column is directly titled "Saudi Arabia - Pakistan - Turkey against whom?" (Yeni Şafak, 17 January 2026). In this case, it appears that the Anadolu Agency news text contains the wrong country name.

Turkey-Pakistan-Saudi Arabia alliance

The alliance under discussion is the Turkey-Pakistan-Saudi Arabia alliance. Pakistan's Minister of Defence Production, Raza Hayat Harraj, announced, "The Pakistan-Saudi Arabia-Turkey trilateral agreement is in the preparatory stage. The draft agreement is ready and available in all three countries" (Reuters, 15 January 2026). Fidan must have been asked about this at the meeting the following day.

Whether it is a Turkey-Saudi Arabia-Pakistan or a Turkey-Saudi Arabia-Egypt alliance, it does not matter; the fundamental flaw in both is the absence of Iran. A security mechanism without Iran will be problematic from the outset. 

Fidan continued his statement at the meeting I mentioned, saying: "Our President's vision is for a platform that is inclusive, broader, and produces greater solidarity and stability." It seems that Erdoğan wants more than three countries to come together on a platform, which is a more accurate model, but it is clear that there will be no place for Iran in that model either!

Riyadh's two separate alliance initiatives

While the Turkey-Saudi Arabia-Pakistan alliance was being discussed, news broke that "Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Somalia are holding talks on a military coalition" (Bloomberg, 16 January 2026).

Saudi Arabia is at the centre of both alliances. In my opinion, Prince Salman is trying to establish two separate security guarantees in two different regions of the geography: Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan against Iran, and Egypt and Somalia against the United Arab Emirates (more precisely, Israel). It is noteworthy that Riyadh is seeking two separate alliances against Israel and Iran, which are at odds with each other!

The five-party security mechanism

You may recall that four months ago, in this column, Beyond the Horizon, I wrote an article titled "TRÇ and the five-party mechanism." I examined Bahçeli's proposal for a "TRÇ alliance consisting of Turkey, Russia, and China against the US-Israel axis of evil." The weak point of the TRÇ project was that it did not include Iran. 

In my article, I proposed a "regional five-member security mechanism": "Under conditions where the US is trying to establish a new Middle East order under Israeli hegemony, there is a clear need for a regional security mechanism against the 'US-Israel evil coalition'. A five-member security mechanism that could be established through cooperation between Turkey, Iran, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan is the most concrete answer to the question of 'how to stop the US-Israel axis'." (Cumhuriyet, 20.9.2025).

The China factor 

Israel's attacks on Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Iran, and even Qatar, backed by the US, clearly demonstrate the region's need for a common security mechanism. 

The proposed tripartite alliance models are essentially based on this concern. Of course, some countries are also attempting to use such alliances as a secondary means of countering their regional rivals. This is why the projects exclude Iran.

However, the issue is critically serious, and countries pursuing such alliances based on their narrow interests represent a critical waste of energy and time. Moreover, imperialist America has ample experience in exploiting countries' "narrow interests" for its own gain. So much so that on the path you embark upon "against the US-Israel axis of evil," you may find yourself on an Iranian front that benefits that very axis of evil!

Fortunately, there is the experience of Chinese diplomacy, which was able to bring Iran and Saudi Arabia together in Beijing in a surprising manner. It is important that the region needs a common security mechanism and is seeking a tripartite model. Subsequently, China and Russia will exert influence in favour of the participation of their regional partner, Iran.