The National Security Strategy published by the White House in December 2025 and the National Defence Strategy published by the Pentagon in January 2026 outline the strategy the US will follow in the coming period. 

As a programme, the National Security Strategy and its operational plan, the National Defence Strategy, are plans for how to achieve the goals outlined in the "America First" doctrine, using which tools and by which means.

We have examined both of these documents in a few articles. Today, we will continue by focusing on the Middle East section.

Partners taking responsibility

The White House's National Security Strategy wanted the US's allies to "take primary responsibility in their regions." This is because it is accepted that the US has weakened, and based on this, the document states that "the US's role in maintaining world order has come to an end." 

The Pentagon's National Defence Strategy further concretises what is expected of allies. The document even has a section directly titled "Increasing burden-sharing with allies and partners." 

The most striking sentence under that heading is: "The Department of Defence (Pentagon) will prioritise strengthening incentives for allies and partners to assume primary responsibility for their own defence in Europe, the Middle East, and the Korean Peninsula."

The US's "burden-sharing" policy has already sparked debate within NATO in Europe. This situation will also begin to unsettle the US's Far East allies and partners, which it has positioned against China.

The US's priority criterion in relations

So who will share the US's burdens in the Middle East?

The Pentagon document provides a clear "general answer" to this question: "We will prioritise cooperation and relationships with exemplary allies who demonstrate significantly greater effort in countering threats in their regions. This cooperation and these relationships will be supported by critical but limited US support, including arms sales, defence industry cooperation, intelligence sharing, and other activities that will put our countries in a better position."

The policy of "prioritising relationships with those who show the most effort" for the benefit of the US has already shown its effect in Syria!

This approach will show its effect in the US's main business in the Middle East. So let's first look at how the Pentagon describes that business in the document.

The US's Middle East plan

In the Pentagon's National Defence Strategy document, the US's goals in the Middle East is listed as follows, with primary responsibility lying with its allies: 

"The Department of Defence will encourage our regional allies and partners to take primary responsibility for deterring and defending against Iran and its proxies; strongly support Israel's self-defence efforts; deepen cooperation with our Gulf Arab partners; and, building on President Trump's historic Abraham Accords initiative, foster integration between Israel and our Gulf Arab partners."

As can be seen here, the US has placed Iran at the top of its list of targets in the Middle East. However, if you notice, the Pentagon does not use a formulation that indicates it will target Iran alone or together with Israel; it says it will encourage its allies and partners to take primary responsibility against Iran.

How can war with Iran be prevented?

This is what we have been pointing to for a long time: the US is trying to build a new Middle East order under Israeli hegemony and form a front against Iran.

Therefore, if allies and partners such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE do not join that front, it will greatly weaken the possibility of the US directly going to war with Iran. To answer the question in the headline, if no one shares the US's burden, it cannot go to war with Iran. At most, it will try to manage the situation by launching air and missile strikes on specific targets.