Israeli president faces 3 scenarios in responding to Netanyahu's request for pardon

Whichever option he chooses, it is certain that he will not be able to satisfy all sides in Israel.

On Sunday, Netanyahu formally submitted a request to the Israeli president asking to be pardoned from the corruption charges being examined by the court, charges he completely denies, triggering internal division.

Since the start of his trial in May 2020, Netanyahu has refused to admit guilt, and Israeli law does not allow the president to grant a pardon without such an admission.

Netanyahu’s request comes at a sensitive time, as Israel has effectively entered its election year ahead of a vote scheduled for next October, unless it is brought forward.

Bini Ashkenazi, a prominent analyst and reporter for Israel Hayom, a major Israeli newspaper, said the prime minister’s request for a presidential pardon carries clear political considerations.

“Netanyahu knows the chances of approval are slim, but this move shifts the public debate away from the controversial draft-exemption bill for the ultra-Orthodox (Haredim), which currently poses a political obstacle for him, and redirects it toward his pardon request,” he added.

Ashkenazi said the step “will greatly benefit Netanyahu’s election campaign.”

“If he is granted a pardon, it will undoubtedly be a major achievement. If he is denied, he can argue the charges are baseless and that even the president refused to pardon him.”

Rejection or approval

The quickest path for Herzog is to reject Netanyahu’s request, based on the opposition’s stance that a pardon should only be granted if he admits guilt and withdraws from political life, Ashkenazi said.

“While this scenario would satisfy the opposition, it would anger Likud—Netanyahu’s party—and its allied factions, potentially increasing domestic tension,” he noted.

On the other hand, approving the request—the second scenario—would satisfy Netanyahu’s allied parties and possibly US President Donald Trump, who on Nov. 12 formally sent a letter to Herzog urging him to grant Netanyahu a pardon. But it would cause strong outrage among the opposition, Ashkenazi said.

“If Herzog approves the request, Israel could see protests even larger than those sparked by the judicial overhaul (during the first nine months of 2023),” he said, adding that “Herzog is fully aware of this.”

Trump’s letter angered Israeli opposition parties, who called it US interference in an internal matter.

“Conditional pardon”

However, a third scenario may be available to Herzog in an attempt to satisfy all sides—reaching a compromise, according to Israel Hayom analyst Elianore Kaufman.

“Sources believe Herzog will try to find a solution that reduces tension and contributes to the healing the public needs,” Kaufman said.

“Herzog may grant a conditional pardon, such as requiring Netanyahu to retire from political life, or demand broader steps such as forming a government inquiry into the Oct. 7 (2023) disaster, or withdrawing controversial judicial and media reform bills,” she added.

“Herzog could push the sides toward an agreed settlement by summoning the attorney general’s office, his own office, and Netanyahu’s representatives for negotiations—asking clarifying questions, seeking expressions of remorse, or extracting concessions from the prosecution.”

In this context, the Israeli public broadcaster KAN said the presidential office tends to believe that any pardon for Netanyahu would not come without conditions and that Herzog is considering requiring Netanyahu to step down—even temporarily—and suspend the judicial overhaul if he chooses to approve the request.

“However, circles close to Netanyahu have made it clear that retiring from political life is not under consideration,” it added.

Channel 14, which is aligned with Netanyahu, reported that Herzog appears inclined to accept the pardon request without requiring Netanyahu to admit guilt or commit to retirement from politics.

“Herzog may ask Netanyahu to make changes to the wording of the request—changes that do not amount to an admission of guilt but address the charges against him,” the channel said Sunday, without giving details.

“The procedural timeline until Herzog issues a final decision is expected to take several weeks, and possibly no less than two months,” it added.

In January, Netanyahu began interrogation sessions related to corruption charges in cases designated 1000, 2000 and 4000, all of which he denies.

Case 1000 involves accusations that Netanyahu and his wife received expensive gifts such as cigars and champagne from wealthy businessmen in exchange for political favors.

Case 2000 concerns alleged negotiations with Arnon Mozes, publisher of the Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper, to gain favorable media coverage.

Case 4000, considered the most serious, involves allegations of providing regulatory and other benefits to Shaul Elovitch, the former owner of the Walla news site and the telecommunications giant Bezeq, in exchange for favorable media coverage.

The Israeli prime minister also faces charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity, with the International Criminal Court issuing arrest warrants for him and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant in November 2024 over atrocities in Gaza, where over 70,000 people, mostly women and children, have been killed since October 2023.